Bitcoin Bear Market Over as CryptoQuant Bull/Bear Indicator Echoes 2023 Recovery

Bitcoin has exited its 2026 bear market, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, who pointed to a key profitability metric flipping bullish for the first time in nearly ten months. The CryptoQuant Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which measures the distance of the P&L Index from its 365-day moving average, posted a positive reading of 0.042 on August 26—its first bullish print since early October 2025. "The Bitcoin bear cycle is over," Ki wrote in a Wednesday post on X, framing the shift as a confirmed macro trend change.

The P&L Index itself aggregates several onchain profitability metrics, including the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), and the spent output profit ratio (SOPR), offering a composite view of Bitcoin investors' realized and unrealized gains and losses. Values above zero on the Bull/Bear indicator have historically aligned with bullish phases in the BTC price cycle. The current cycle bottom was registered on February 5, when BTC/USD fell to $60,000 with the indicator printing -1.244—conditions CryptoQuant classified as "extreme bear." Ki noted that the same indicator successfully called the end of the previous bear market as upside returned in early 2023, lending weight to the current signal.

Despite the bullish technical confirmation, skepticism over Bitcoin's near-term price strength persists. BTC was trading around $79,598 at the time of the analysis, having struggled to reclaim the $80,000 level amid concerns over insufficient market liquidity to support a sustained macro trend reversal. Additional indicators, including the relative strength index (RSI), have also begun flashing recovery signals reminiscent of late 2022, though analysts caution that supply absorption remains a key question for confirming the next leg higher. Whether the P&L metrics can sustain their bullish posture will likely determine if Bitcoin's latest breakout matures into a full-fledged rally or faces another liquidity-driven setback.