Bitcoin Bull Market Signal: Fisher Transform Prints Fourth-Ever Bullish Cross

Bitcoin is flashing a rare long-term bottom signal as the Fisher Transform indicator delivered its fourth-ever monthly bullish crossover in history, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo. The cross occurred in July at a reading of -2.26, and follows three prior instances that each successfully marked the end of a BTC bear market without a false signal. Woo noted in an X thread on Friday: "BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake out. Latest cross is the 4th on record."

The Fisher Transform, a price trend analysis tool created in 2002, applies a log-based transform to smooth Bitcoin's volatile price action and produce a readable trend-strength chart consisting of two fluctuating lines: the Fisher line and a delayed trigger line. Sharp upward reversals where the two lines cross have historically coincided with macro cycle bottoms when viewed on monthly time frames. The most recent comparable crossover preceded the late-2022 bottom, when the indicator reached -3.83 before Bitcoin reversed into its 2024-2025 uptrend.

A bullish divergence has also emerged on weekly charts, echoing the closing stages of Bitcoin's 2022 downtrend and reinforcing the case for a clean macro reversal. Woo acknowledged that BTC price could still consolidate or drift lower in the short term, pointing to past bull-market episodes in which Fisher printed a bearish crossover only to deliver a fresh bullish cross later. He attributed this asymmetry between tops and bottoms to the presence of speculative traders during uptrends, whose sensitivity to short-term moves produces choppy reversals, whereas their absence during bear-market floors allows for cleaner trend changes once value-driven buying pressure returns.

Bitcoin traded near $78,030 at the time of publication, up roughly 2.2% on the day, with traders watching whether history will repeat and the Fisher Transform crossover will mark the start of a new macro uptrend for BTC/USD.