Bitcoin Drops Below $84K as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High

Bitcoin slipped below $84,000 during Asian trading on Thursday, falling to around $83,200 after the US 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2007. The benchmark yield closed Wednesday at 5.11%, up from 4.96% the prior day, and reached 5.13% intraday. CME attributed the bond selloff partly to stronger US business data and rising oil prices. James Stanley, senior market analyst for global macro at FOREX.com, noted that "BTC has held up well even with surging rates and a strong USD," while identifying $82,833 as the next key support level to watch.

Rising Treasury yields offer investors higher returns on government debt while raising borrowing costs across the economy—a dynamic that typically pressures risk assets like Bitcoin. The US Treasury announced a $6 billion ceiling for its Thursday buyback of bonds with 20 to 30 years remaining, part of an expanded program aimed at improving liquidity in long-dated debt. Bas Kooijman, CEO of DHF Capital, said stronger US business activity and elevated energy prices had lifted expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, with markets now pricing roughly a 70% probability of a hike in October, up from about 55% a day earlier.

CME Group's FedWatch tool shows a 75.3% probability of a rate hike to 4.00–4.25% at the October 28 FOMC meeting. An October move would raise short-term borrowing costs, potentially squeezing dollar-funded leveraged Bitcoin trades. BTC could face renewed pressure before any decision if upcoming labor or inflation data pushes yields and the dollar higher. Despite near-term headwinds, historical data from CoinGlass shows Bitcoin has closed September higher for three consecutive years, with October averaging a 19.92% gain.