Bitcoin Enters New Bull Market Phase But $83K Weekly Close Remains Crucial

Bitcoin has entered the initial phase of a new bull market following a 24% rally that pushed key onchain and demand indicators into bullish territory, according to CryptoQuant. The analytics firm's Bull Score Index surged from 30 to 80 over the past week, reaching its highest level since October 2025, with eight of its ten underlying indicators now flashing bullish. Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 during the rally, but CryptoQuant emphasized that a weekly close above the 365-day moving average, currently around $83,000, is required to confirm the transition to a sustained bull market. The shift is supported by accelerating spot demand, with spot and futures demand growing together for the first time since early October 2025.

LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger pointed to the May 2026 high of $82,820 as the next critical resistance level for Bitcoin. A decisive break above that price would reinforce the view that a meaningful cycle low is in place and shift market attention toward the $100,000 threshold and ultimately the 2025 record high. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $79,000, according to CoinGecko data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs added $338 million as a six-day inflow streak reached $2.26 billion, further underscoring renewed institutional appetite.

Despite the bullish signals, CryptoQuant cautioned that the rally may be overheated in the near term, citing rising unrealized profits, heavy whale profit-taking, and a spike in exchange deposits. Traders' unrealized profit margins climbed to 20.5%, their highest level since June 2025, a threshold that preceded a 30% correction in early May when BTC was trading near $82,000. Short-term holder whales realized approximately $1.2 billion in profits between August 20 and August 22, including a record $614 million on August 20. Bitcoin exchange inflows also climbed to roughly 53,000 BTC, the highest since June, signaling that more coins are moving to trading platforms where they could be sold.