Bitcoin Eyes 20-Month Moving Average Breakout Before New All-Time Highs: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin is positioning itself for a potential breakout above its 20-month simple moving average (SMA), currently sitting at $87,165, according to a CryptoQuant analysis published October 16. The onchain analytics firm's market cycle signals tool indicates that BTC/USD is preparing to reclaim what it calls an "inflection frontier"—a key trend line the asset lost in December 2025 after reaching an all-time high of $124,709 on October 6, 2025.

The 20-month SMA serves as the foundation for the Bollinger Bands metric, with upper and lower bands currently positioned at $121,640 and $52,694, respectively. CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain noted that "just over a year after the ATH, the market has concluded its 'reset,'" suggesting that Bitcoin's current consolidation phase may be ending. The indicator describes the zone between the lower band and SMA as an "accumulation base," while the SMA itself marks a previous capitulation point for investors.

Despite Bitcoin trading near $82,442—a level GugaOnChain says has retail investors fearing it's the top—CryptoQuant's bull-bear market cycle indicator continues to classify Bitcoin as being in a bull market. The firm's analysis suggests that "smart money" typically takes profit once BTC/USD reaches its upper band, which currently sits just below Bitcoin's most recent all-time high of $126,200 from October 2025.

While Bollinger Bands are not designed as direct buy or sell signals, historical patterns show that successful breakouts above the 20-month SMA have preceded new cycle highs. CryptoQuant's outlook points to further upside beyond the previous peak, with the 20-month SMA also showing confluence with Bitcoin's 2026 opening price levels—reinforcing its significance as a pivotal technical threshold for the leading cryptocurrency.