Bitcoin Faces $80K Test Ahead of Fed Decision and Tech Earnings

Bitcoin is fighting to maintain $80,000 support as the final week of October brings a dense schedule of macroeconomic data and US corporate earnings. The asset is on course to finish the month down approximately 4%, matching its 2025 performance, while weak support could leave traders exposed to another sharp decline.

The Federal Open Market Committee will decide on Wednesday whether to keep the federal funds rate within its current 3.75%-4% range. CME FedWatch markets assign more than a 90% probability of a pause, while economist Robin Brooks said the decision carries little immediate market interest compared with earlier 2026 meetings. Investors are also pricing in growing expectations of a 0.25 percentage-point hike at the December meeting, making Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s policy language and press conference a major focus for Bitcoin traders.

Oil prices add another layer of uncertainty. Brent crude reached $117 per barrel on Friday before retreating to around $110 on Monday. Brooks argued that even a rise to $125 would be unlikely to force the Fed to hike, citing risks to French government debt, the growing debt burden associated with AI data centers and the potential impact on the S&P 500.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, arrives Thursday as traders assess whether inflation is moving in the desired direction. South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index has also resumed its decline ahead of a major round of US tech earnings. For Bitcoin, the combination of a possible Fed surprise, higher-for-longer inflation and disappointing technology-sector results could undermine $80,000 support and intensify volatility.