Bitcoin Hovers Below $76K as Fed Rate Decision Looms; Hike Odds at 93%

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near monthly lows below $76,000 on Wednesday as markets awaited the US Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, with price action capped by new September lows of $74,960 hit the day prior. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders priced in a 93% probability of officials confirming a 0.25% rate hike, which would bring the federal funds rate to 3.75-4%. Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that any deviation from a hike would be historic: "In data going back to 2008, whenever expectations of a hike have been this high, the Fed has invariably delivered one. If the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged today, it would mark the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994."

The decision comes amid pressure from US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly demanded rate cuts, and follows the European Central Bank's 0.25% hike last week. The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise its benchmark rate by 0.25% on Friday, bringing it to 1.25%—its highest level in 31 years. Central banks worldwide are grappling with rising inflationary pressures driven by energy costs, as US WTI crude oil climbed to $106.70 per barrel on Tuesday, its highest level since May 4, amid escalating Middle East conflict disrupting supply chains.

Compounding crypto market sentiment, the CLARITY Act failed to secure the 60 votes needed in the Senate to advance to debate, denying the digital asset sector a legislative win. Onchain data showed bid liquidity thickening around the $68,000-$70,000 zone as traders positioned for potential volatility following the Fed's announcement. With rate-hike odds passing 90% and oil-driven inflation showing no signs of easing, Bitcoin's near-term trajectory hinges on whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals further hikes or pivots toward a more accommodative stance.