Bitcoin Midterms, Fed Hikes and Tech Earnings: 3 Key BTC Signals

Heading into Tuesday’s US midterm elections, Bitcoin held above its 100-day moving average as crypto traders assessed the prospect of a Democratic House win and renewed policy uncertainty. Kalshi traders put Democrats’ chances of taking control of the House at 93.6% as of Monday. President Donald Trump said he would use his veto power if Democrats won control of Congress, calling himself “Mr Veto.” Bitcoin ended the fourth quarter lower in each of the past three midterm years—17.3% in 2014, 43.5% in 2018 and 14.8% in 2022—with all three declines coinciding with BTC bear markets.

Bitcoin’s technical position remains fragile. BTC was down 6.4% for the quarter as of Monday after posting its weakest October since 2014, according to CoinGlass, while trader Rekt Capital compared its price chart with the 2023 recovery. IntoTheCryptoverse founder and CEO Benjamin Cowen said midterm-related fourth-quarter selloffs can create buying opportunities, adding that previous Bitcoin bear-market bottoms have coincided with the second half of midterm years.

Macro data could amplify volatility. September job openings are due Tuesday, followed by October’s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Economists expect payrolls to rise by 65,000 after the economy added 29,000 jobs in September, below the previous forecast of 84,000. A weaker result could increase expectations of dovish Federal Reserve policy and support crypto liquidity, although CME Group’s FedWatch pricing currently leans toward a December rate hike. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are also scheduled to speak.

Earnings from Apple and Palantir will provide an additional test for risk appetite, particularly as investors assess the valuation of AI-linked technology companies. For BTC traders, the combination of election uncertainty, shifting rate expectations and volatile tech earnings could test whether Bitcoin can preserve its 100-day moving-average support despite the historical weakness associated with midterm-year fourth quarters.