Bitcoin Price Outlook: 10x’s Thielen Sees $90K, Questions ETF Demand

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, says Wall Street traders and profit-taking whales have made Bitcoin’s consecutive double-digit rallies less common. Institutional traders selling call options after price surges are reducing the market’s explosive advances, he told Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets. Thielen, author of the crypto industry history Crypto Titans, expects Bitcoin to react quickly to economic data and Federal Reserve decisions, then move sideways until the next major macro event.

Thielen estimates that market makers account for up to half of the $60 billion in net inflows he analyzed across US spot Bitcoin ETFs, based on Form 13F filings from investment managers. Market makers can hold ETF shares to hedge their options positions, meaning those holdings do not always represent a bet that Bitcoin will rise. The first wave of ETF purchases also included retail investors buying through financial institutions and corporate vehicles, with some paying substantial premiums to the value of their underlying crypto holdings.

Thielen still expects Bitcoin to reach $90,000 by year-end, although he sees a possible decline into the mid-to-high $70,000s first. The asset traded near $76,100 on Friday following Binance’s reported $6.3 billion hack, while Coinglass data showed Bitcoin ended October down 7.3%. Comparing the rebound with early 2023, when Bitcoin climbed from roughly $20,000 to $30,000, Thielen says investors are again waiting for the next drop and entry point. He also argues that Ethereum must do more for its holders.

Despite questioning the quality of institutional ETF demand, Thielen believes more institutions—and potentially sovereign wealth funds—could enter the market. He says each crypto cycle has featured different promoters attracting different groups of investors. “Every cycle had actually different promoters, and different promoters bring in different investors,” he said, adding that this cycle’s promoters come from Wall Street.