Bitcoin Price Rejected at 50-Day SMA Ahead of FOMC Decision

Bitcoin failed to clear a key technical resistance level on Wednesday, reversing early gains as the market awaited the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest-rate decision. BTC/USD rose as high as $81,687 before falling to $80,297 on Bitstamp, leaving the price below its 50-day simple moving average of $81,831. At publication, Bitcoin was down roughly 0.3% on the day and trading near $80,863, according to TradingView and market data cited by Cointelegraph.

The pullback came as US equities opened flat ahead of the FOMC statement and a press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed a 90.6% probability that the central bank would keep its target rate unchanged at 3.75%–4%. Attention was focused on Warsh’s economic outlook and whether his comments could alter expectations for the December meeting, for which FedWatch displayed only a 0.25% probability of a quarter-point rate hike.

Broader market conditions were mixed. South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index jumped 6.6%, its strongest daily performance since July, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite failed to follow suit. According to analyst Charl van Zyl, the Nasdaq was still 34% below its June 22 record of 9,115 following a nearly 10% two-day rebound, having closed 40% below that peak on Monday. Van Zyl said the Fed decision and upcoming technology-sector earnings could shape investor assessments of the AI industry’s financial health.

Keith Alan, co-founder of crypto trading platform Material Indicators, said the election outcome was another factor that markets had not fully priced in. Traders will have less than a week to digest the FOMC result before the US midterm elections on November 3, adding another source of uncertainty for Bitcoin and risk assets. The immediate technical focus remains the 50-day moving average near $81,831, where the latest rally was rejected.