Bitcoin Reaches 50% Win Rate vs S&P 500 as Midterms Favor Stocks

Bitcoin’s rolling 90-session win rate against the S&P 500 recovered to 50%, according to onchain analytics platform Glassnode, ending a prolonged stretch in which the cryptocurrency underperformed the US benchmark. The latest reading, covering 90 Wall Street trading sessions through Wednesday, shows Bitcoin posted higher returns than the S&P 500 in half of the period.

Glassnode noted that Bitcoin had not exceeded a 50% session win rate since March 2025. The return to an even split also came with slightly higher average per-session gains for Bitcoin. According to the analytics firm, a sustained move above 50% could indicate that the digital asset is regaining momentum relative to US equities.

Historical midterm election data cited by crypto asset manager Capriole Investments also points to a favorable environment for stocks. In seven of the 26 US midterm elections since 1922 where Democrats won control of both the House and Senate while a Republican held the presidency, the S&P 500 gained an average of 10.7% over the following three months. Average returns reached 17.5% after six months and 15.5% after one year.

Capriole founder Charles Edwards said the latest election result was historically the strongest outcome for markets. Although the seven-election sample is limited, the findings suggest that Bitcoin’s improved relative performance arrives as post-midterm seasonality and investor expectations increasingly favor US stocks.