Bitcoin Reclaims 50-Week Moving Average: Is the Bear Market Finally Over?

Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in over ten months, reigniting debate among analysts over whether the cryptocurrency's prolonged bear market has finally ended. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin finished the week at $81,159 on Coinbase, surpassing the key technical indicator at $78,788. The last weekly close above this threshold occurred on November 9, 2025, making this the highest weekly close in four months.

Galaxy Research's head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, previously described the 50-week moving average as a ceiling during bear markets. "In four of the five completed bear markets, once the 50-week moving average was first broken to the upside, the bear market bottom was definitively 'in,'" Thorn wrote in an August research note. Historical data supports this thesis: Bitcoin posted gains between 700% and 900% after breaking above the level in 2017, 2020, and 2023. Collective Shift founder Ben Simpson called a confirmed close above the moving average "the last thing I need to see before I call this a bull market."

However, analysts caution against premature celebration. Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee noted that a single weekly close is insufficient to confirm a cycle bottom. "What matters now is whether Bitcoin can stay above the 50-week average and continue forming higher lows," Lee told Cointelegraph. He pointed to previous failed reclaims, particularly during periods of difficult macro conditions. Galaxy's own research acknowledges the indicator isn't infallible: of 13 historical crossings back above the 50-week moving average, two were followed by a lower low, both during the 2021–2022 bear market.

Despite the caveats, the broader market backdrop appears stronger than earlier in the year. Bitcoin has recovered significantly from its July lows of $57,000, and repeated liquidations have cleared out excess leverage. While one technical signal doesn't guarantee a new bull run, the reclaim of the 50-week moving average adds meaningful weight to the case that Bitcoin's recovery is underway and that long-term momentum is beginning to shift.