Bitcoin Risks $80K Break Ahead of Fed Decision and Tech Earnings

Bitcoin is fighting to preserve $80,000 support as the final week of October opens, with bulls facing a heavy schedule of US macroeconomic data and corporate earnings. BTC is tracking a roughly 4% monthly decline, similar to its 2025 performance, while momentum around the $80,000 level remains fragile. The Federal Open Market Committee decision on Wednesday and Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data are the week’s biggest catalysts.

Markets strongly expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates within its current 3.75%–4% range, with FedWatch-derived pricing cited in the report placing hold odds above 90%. Economist Robin Brooks estimated the probability of a quarter-point increase at 12%. Investors will focus not only on the decision but also on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference and any changes to the central bank’s guidance. Futures markets are also leaning toward a 0.25% rate hike at the December meeting.

Oil prices add complexity after Brent crude reached $117 per barrel on Friday, its highest level since March 19, before retreating to around $110 on Monday. Brooks said even a rise to $125 would be unlikely to force the Fed to hike because tighter financial conditions could amplify concerns about French debt, AI and data-center borrowing costs, and a potential fall in the S&P 500. That backdrop supports the view that monetary policy will remain on hold despite rising geopolitical and inflation risks.

A major round of US tech earnings could further influence Bitcoin through broader risk sentiment, while South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index resumed trading on the downside. With the Fed, PCE data and corporate results converging, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim momentum above $80,000 or break below the key support level.