Bitcoin SOPR Posts Longest 2026 Profit Streak as Analysts Warn of Further Downside

Bitcoin's spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has remained above its breakeven threshold of 1 for three consecutive weeks—the longest bullish stretch of 2026—according to data from CryptoQuant. The aggregate onchain metric, currently sitting at 1.002, indicates that coins moving onchain are predominantly being transacted at a profit since Aug. 19. In typical bear-market conditions, rallies back into profit are quickly sold off; the persistence of this signal suggests Bitcoin may be transitioning toward early bull-market behavior.

Onchain analytics platform Checkonchain highlighted that short-term holder (STH) SOPR readings are reinforcing the bullish case. STH wallets hold UTXOs without selling for up to six months, and their profitability patterns now mirror those seen during early bull-market recoveries, where brief dips below breakeven tend to attract dip-buyers rather than panic sellers. This structural shift has fueled speculation that Bitcoin may be staging a sustained recovery after a volatile year.

However, not all analysts are convinced. ARK Invest portfolio manager David Puell, creator of the widely tracked Puell Multiple indicator, cautioned that Bitcoin price "downside risk" remains intact. Speaking to CryptoQuant on Sept. 4, Puell noted that BTC/USD holding a local range around $80,000 does not rule out new macro lows this cycle. He argued that more evidence is needed before assuming the next bear-market floor is already in, particularly given the 25% August upside heading into Q4. With Bitcoin trading near $79,374 and competing bullish and bearish signals, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the SOPR streak marks a genuine regime change or a temporary reprieve.