Bitcoin Stuck Near $86K as US Bond Yields and Fed Uncertainty Cap Upside

Bitcoin struggled to break higher on Monday, hovering around $86,000 after failing to surmount its strongest weekly close in eight months. Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD rejected near the weekly close level of $86,570 as US trading began, with the 2026 yearly open at $87,570 remaining a key psychological resistance overhead. The muted price action followed a week that had buoyed trader sentiment but ultimately failed to translate into a sustained breakout.

The primary headwind came from US bond yields, which resumed their climb after a brief Friday pullback. The 30-year Treasury yield passed 5.67% once again, sitting just two basis points shy of 24-year highs, while the 10-year yield returned to 5.31%. QCP Capital noted in its latest market analysis that even softer US employment data had been insufficient to calm bond markets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices, limiting broader risk-on momentum across asset classes.

Despite the crypto-specific caution, US equities opened moderately higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite up 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, as traders positioned for a possible Federal Reserve pause at the October 28 FOMC meeting. Deutsche Bank analysts, quoted by CNBC, suggested that minutes from the September FOMC meeting, due Wednesday, would carry outsized significance given the unsettled bond market, particularly regarding the Committee's framing of the tightening cycle and the neutral rate.

Onchain metrics offered little encouragement for bulls. Glassnode reported less "aggressive upward momentum" in recent data, reinforcing the sense that Bitcoin's rally may need a fresh catalyst to challenge overhead resistance. With the Fed minutes and upcoming macroeconomic data in focus, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $87,570 yearly open or whether elevated yields will continue to weigh on risk assets through the remainder of the week.