Bitcoin Surges Past $79K as Trump Hints at Iran War End, Oil Prices Drop

Bitcoin reclaimed the $79,000 level at Monday's Wall Street open, gaining roughly 3% as US President Donald Trump signaled that the conflict with Iran could be nearing resolution. The rally coincided with a drop in oil prices after Trump posted on Truth Social that "the failing Nation of Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly," adding that the US was open to engaging. A follow-up post reinforced the message: "Oil will drop like a rock as soon as the Military Conflict with Iran is over, and that will not be long."

Despite the crypto gains, US equities turned red amid uncertainty over Middle East oil transit routes. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, while US WTI crude held above $100 per barrel and Brent crude traded near $105. Beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait remained under threat as the conflict widened beyond Iran's borders.

Markets also repriced Federal Reserve expectations sharply. CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting climbing to 92.7%, up from 59.4% just one week earlier. Trading firm QCP Capital noted that a prolonged energy disruption would feed directly into transport and logistics pricing, complicating the Fed's policy calculus as it prepares to announce its interest-rate decision on Wednesday, with consensus pointing to a hike to the 3.75–4% range.

Technically, Bitcoin is now testing its 50-week exponential moving average after closing below the key trend line on Sunday, according to TradingView data. Whether BTC can hold above $79,000 and push toward the $80,000 mark may depend heavily on oil's trajectory and any concrete developments out of the Iran conflict in the days ahead.