Bitcoin Surges Past $85K: 8-Month High Driven by ETF Inflows and Cooling Oil Prices

Bitcoin reached a new 33-week high on Monday, briefly touching $85,248 and marking its strongest level since January 29. The rally followed a weekly close of $81,120 on Sunday — the highest since the week of May 4 — according to TradingView data. Cross-crypto short liquidations spiked past $600 million in 24 hours, per CoinGlass, as bulls pushed BTC/USD past the prior local high of $82,950 from May. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital had previously described Bitcoin as facing a "moment of truth" below that resistance level, while warning of bearish divergence on the daily RSI. With price now above $84,000, the daily RSI is approaching overbought territory at 70. Bitcoin has also reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,769, a level Rekt Capital had flagged as a prerequisite for continued upside.

Macro tailwinds helped fuel the move, with markets eyeing oil prices below $94 per barrel and bond yields amid speculation around US-Iran war diplomacy. Lower energy costs have eased inflation concerns, supporting risk assets including cryptocurrencies. The shift in sentiment has brought several investor cohorts back into aggregate profit, including Bitcoin corporate treasuries with an average cost basis near $80,500. Bitcoin price is now approaching the breakeven point for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors, whose cost basis sits at $85,638 according to onchain analytics platform Glassnode.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a strong end to the prior week, posting net inflows of $435 million as institutional investors added BTC exposure during the rally toward $81,000. The proximity to ETF breakeven levels could prove pivotal: a decisive break above $85,638 may trigger additional buying from institutional desks that have been sitting on unrealized losses. Analysts are now watching whether Bitcoin can hold above $82,950 support to confirm a structural breakout, or whether the overbought RSI reading signals an impending pullback toward the 50-week EMA near $77,700.