Bitcoin Tests $81.5K ETF Cost Basis as Iran Worries Hit Stocks

Bitcoin hovered around the $81,500 cost basis of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds on Thursday, extending its decline as geopolitical tensions weighed on risk assets. BTC fell to $81,256 on Bitstamp, down 2.9% on the day, after approaching $85,000 Wednesday and slipping below $82,000 near the Wall Street open.

US President Donald Trump said the US was “not negotiating” with Iran and renewed the possibility of military action, contributing to a broader risk-off mood. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% at the time of reporting, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.3%. Mixed reactions to Tesla earnings and capital spending, renewed concerns about AI valuations and higher energy prices also pressured technology stocks.

Bitfinex Alpha analysts expected BTC to remain within a relatively narrow range of $81,300 to $84,400 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 28 interest-rate meeting. They said sustained ETF demand and stable leverage could support a break above $84,400, while macro headwinds and a close below $81,300 would increase the risk of a further decline.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury also approached 5% as investors moved toward safer assets. Bitcoin’s next directional move may therefore depend on ETF inflows, leverage conditions and the Fed’s rate decision amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.