Bitcoin Weekly RSI Divergence Mirrors 2022 Bear Market Bottom Pattern

Bitcoin's weekly relative strength index has reached 58.3, triggering a bullish divergence that echoes the pattern observed roughly six months before the end of the 2022 bear market, according to data from TradingView analyzed by Cointelegraph. The divergence occurs when RSI prints higher lows while BTC/USD posts lower lows—a setup that historically has preceded major trend reversals. In mid-2022, this same signal appeared before Bitcoin's macro bottom, lending credibility to current bullish interpretations despite ongoing debate among traders. The cryptocurrency last touched its all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025 before entering a corrective phase throughout 2026.

Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, emphasized the significance of the weekly timeframe in an X post, stating that "weekly is the timeframe that matters here, that's where you read the secular trend and the cycle inflection points." He described weekly bullish divergences as carrying "real weight," pointing to prior instances where they preceded substantial upside. Meanwhile, daily RSI has climbed to 82.93—the most overbought reading since November 2024—splitting market participants on whether this signals an imminent reversal or simply reflects a strong trend continuation. Historically, Bitcoin bull runs have featured multiple RSI readings above 70 without immediately reversing.

Beyond RSI, the Stochastic RSI has printed a key crossover, though it has avoided the zero-level readings that marked previous bear-market lows. BTC's recent 25% rebound from last week's lows to $80,000 has added fuel to both bullish and cautious narratives. As analysts weigh short-term overbought conditions against longer-term bullish divergence structures, the question remains whether Bitcoin's current setup will resolve into a sustained macro trend change or another volatile sideways phase. With conflicting signals across daily, weekly, and two-month timeframes, traders are watching for confirmation in coming sessions.