CLARITY Act Odds Drop to 16% as Democrats Reject GOP's 'Final' Crypto Bill

Odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law fell to 16% on Polymarket on Monday, reversing a brief surge to 35% the day before, as key Senate Democrats rejected a revised Republican proposal seen as the GOP's final offer on crypto market structure legislation. Senators Mark Warner, Raphael Warnock, and Ruben Gallego all signaled that the latest ethics provisions did not go far enough, with Gallego telling Punchbowl News the offer left "much to be desired" and that he was preparing a counterproposal. Senate Banking Committee staff under Elizabeth Warren also circulated talking points warning that a proposed state AG enforcement mechanism could be overridden by White House ethics officials, further undermining confidence in the bill.

Democrats sent their counterproposal to Republican negotiators on Monday, according to Politico's Jasper Goodman. Not all Democrats are opposed: Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has privately urged colleagues to support the procedural motion to advance the bill. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis pushed back, saying President Donald Trump had already accepted two significant ethics provisions and that there was "nothing left to give." Republicans need 60 votes to clear the Senate, and a failed procedural vote on Tuesday could stall legislation that would define how the SEC and CFTC divide oversight of the US crypto market.

Beyond the partisan standoff, the bill faces mounting opposition from industry groups. The Indian Gaming Association warned that the bill's prediction market provisions threaten tribal sovereignty, while banking groups flagged loopholes in the stablecoin reward framework that the latest GOP text failed to close. The resistance adds to opposition from a coalition of 18 state attorneys general, raising further uncertainty about whether the CLARITY Act can gain the votes needed to advance before the legislative window closes.