CryptoQuant: 3 Onchain Charts Signal Bitcoin 'Uptober' Bottom Is In

Bitcoin's October rally narrative received fresh support this week as CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Research Japan published onchain data pointing to a potential local bottom for BTC price action. Despite macroeconomic headwinds—including 24-year highs in US bond yields, rising oil prices, and cooling capital inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs—the analytics firm identified three indicators suggesting October's worst may already be behind the market.

The first signal comes from Bitcoin exchange reserves, which dropped 1.7% from 2.726 million BTC on September 20 to 2.68 million as of October 14. The decline reflects steady accumulation rather than panic selling, even as BTC/USD fell from $87,000 on October 2 to near $80,000 on October 8. Whale holdings tell a similar story: wallets holding large BTC balances have held firm above the 3 million BTC threshold, with no significant distribution despite the price drawdown.

Apparent demand, a metric tracking newly mined BTC against changes in dormant supply, is approaching a second positive 30-day reading in 2026—a signal last observed during the late August rally. XWIN attributes improving conditions to cooling expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes into 2027 and anticipated clarity following the approaching Midterm Elections, which could reduce political uncertainty and prompt investors to reassess crypto allocations. Combined, the three metrics suggest Bitcoin is positioned to defend its historically strong October performance despite lingering market turbulence.