Standard Chartered Pushes $2T Stablecoin Forecast to 2030 Amid Growing Transaction Volumes

Standard Chartered has revised its stablecoin market forecast, now projecting $2 trillion in total capitalization by 2030 — two years later than its initial estimate — as the market plateaued at roughly $309 billion this year despite accelerating transaction activity. The bank's analysts note that stablecoin usage is expanding through higher circulation frequency rather than new supply growth, with existing tokens changing hands more often as adoption deepens across financial services.

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, identified four distinct stablecoin markets with unique competitive dynamics. Tether's USDT dominates emerging-market savings, while Circle's USDC leads developed-market payments and crypto trading alongside Ethena's USDe. USDC also holds the leading position in the nascent market for transactions between AI agents, a segment expected to grow as autonomous systems increasingly settle payments on-chain. Kendrick warned that the most intense competition will emerge in this category, where challengers including USDG, M^0, and multibank stablecoin networks are building alternatives to traditional payment rails.

According to Kendrick, how issuers and payment networks divide the yield generated by stablecoin reserves could ultimately determine market share, turning reserve economics into a central competitive battleground. Standard Chartered's outlook also factors in US regulatory developments following the 2025 GENIUS Act, with the Treasury Department proposing rules in August that would restrict stablecoin issuance to federally or state-authorized issuers, effective January 2027. Separately, the Financial Accounting Standards Board proposed an update that could affect how businesses account for stablecoins on their balance sheets, potentially reshaping institutional adoption timelines.